Biology subjects

Bradshaw, C. J. A.

Publications and source records attributed to Bradshaw, C. J. A..

13 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Species richness and trait diversity show parallel island-biogeographic patterns across Australian islands

Island biogeography is the theoretical and empirically validated expectation that an islands biodiversity is ultimately limited by its size and isolation, with larger and less isolated (from mainland communities) islands supporting greater diversity. Island biogeography is generally applied to simple metrics of diversity such as species richness (number of different species); however, fewer studies have used traits to measure biodiversity. An organisms traits -- e.g., body mass, age at sexual maturity, trophic level -- can be used to measure biodiversity and understand how ecological communities function. We quantified species richness for birds, mammals, reptiles, and amphibians, and functional diversity for birds and mammals (for which sufficient trait data were available), and tested whether this diversity can be predicted using the theory of island biogeography. We identified 9,103 Australian islands, of which 1,661 had at least one (native and/or non-native) non-marine species present according to the Atlas of Living Australia. As expected, tetrapod species richness (S) increased with island area (A) (z = 0.299 {+/-} 0.012) following a typical power-law relationship (i.e., S = cAz, where z = 0.2-0.4), but was not predicted by distance from mainland -- consistent with the pattern observed on other recently (< 10,000 years) isolated continental islands. We found that trait richness increased at the same rate with island area as species richness for mammals, but for birds, trait richness increased more slowly than species richness. Trait turnover increased modestly with inter-island distance, whereas trait nestedness was unrelated to distance. Trait richness increased strongly with species richness in both birds and mammals, and island area and isolation explained no additional variation in functional richness after accounting for species richness. These results indicate that island geography influences functional diversity primarily through species accumulation, rather than through direct effects on occupied trait space. Overall, the trait space of smaller islands tended to be nested within that of larger, nearby islands; the main differences among similar-sized islands are due to turnover (change in species/trait combinations among assemblages), and the effects are more pronounced in mammals compared to birds. We also found evidence for an asymptotic relationship between trait and species turnover in both birds and mammals, suggesting close coupling between taxonomic and functional turnover, with some saturation of trait turnover at high species turnover. Large islands that are simultaneously more isolated might offer conservation advantages by reducing the influence of threatening processes on the mainland if distance limits access of people and invasive species.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

Warming amplifies short-term responses to disturbance in lake food webs

Ecological communities can exhibit transient amplification after disturbance even if asymptotically stable, yet how environmental change reshapes these short-term responses in real food webs remains unclear. We combined four decades of monthly plankton observations from nine Swiss lakes with a food-web model to quantify effects of warming and oligotrophication on two transient properties: reactivity (instantaneous sensitivity to small disturbances) and the time to peak response (tmax). Across lakes, community states lie in an asymptotically stable yet reactive regime. Warmer conditions consistently increased reactivity and lengthened tmax; after accounting for oligotrophication, a 1 {degrees}C rise in mean temperature corresponded to [~] 10% higher reactivity on average. Linking month-to-month variation in transient metrics to guild biomass showed that reactivity covaried strongly with consumer biomass, especially large herbivores, whereas tmax was most associated with predator biomass, a pattern consistent with metabolic-scaling predictions from thermal ecology. The central warming-reactivity association was preserved when we made the bioenergetic parameters themselves temperature-dependent through Boltzmann-Arrhenius scaling. Warming therefore systematically boosted transient sensitivity in these lake food webs via shifts in consumer and predator biomass. Author summaryEcological stability is often evaluated using long-term equilibrium properties that describe whether a community eventually returns toward its previous state after a disturbance, and how long this recovery takes. Yet a system that is stable in the long run can still undergo a strong short-term response before recovering. We asked whether environmental warming changes the magnitude and duration of these temporary responses in real ecosystems. We combined four decades of monthly plankton observations from nine Swiss lakes with a mathematical model describing interactions among major feeding groups. We found that warmer conditions were consistently associated with stronger responses to disturbance and with a longer delay before those responses reached their maximum. These patterns emerged despite the communities remining stable over the long term. Changes in the amount of biomass held by consumers and predators helped explain the observed responses, suggesting that warming alters stability through changes in food-web structure. Our findings show that long-term measures alone may overlook ecologically important short-term dynamics. Considering both eventual recovery and temporary amplification could therefore improve our understanding of how lakes and other ecosystems respond to ongoing climate change and increasingly frequent disturbances.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2026

We might not notice a 'mass' extinction

Enhanced AbstractO_ST_ABSBackgroundC_ST_ABSThere is overwhelming evidence that global change is having widespread, detrimental impacts on biodiversity. Population declines and local disappearances have been recorded with increasing frequency across all taxa, resulting in a steady rise in the number of threatened species. However, the number of documented extinctions remains counterintuitively low ([~] 1000 species across all kingdoms) compared to the sense of emergency pervading the scientific community. In isolation, that figure might fuel scepticism about the biodiversity crisis, but when put into context, it reveals that current extinction rates might be comparable to those that occurred during past mass extinction events estimated from the fossil record ([≥] 75% extinctions within < 2 million years). Although this is an important clue supporting the claim that we might now be witnessing a new ( sixth) mass extinction, it falls short of definitive proof. The claim bears such high importance that it requires exceptionally solid foundations. However, our main aim was not to ascertain whether current extinction rates qualify as a new mass extinction event in progress. Instead, we examined the intersection of potential future loss scenarios and species discovery rates to address the fundamental question of whether and when we will be able to confirm a mass extinction is under way. AdvancesOur extrapolations suggest that the timing for a mass extinction to materialise (2,604-34,808 years from now at 75% diversity loss) is consistent with past mass extinctions (e.g., 12,000-108,000 years estimated for the Permian-Triassic extinction to unfold) under modern extinction rates (loss of 0.004%-0.053% of global species richness per year). We identify the minimum necessary conditions in which we could confirm a mass extinction under the full range of assumptions related to total species diversity (ranging from < 1.8 million to 163.2 million animal species) and discovery rates (e.g., [~] 13,110 new animal species described per year as of 2026, with the number growing by [~]77 species per year), and the associated timeframe required. We show that there are many realistic future scenarios where we would fail to detect a mass extinction in progress. OutlookBased on available evidence, the rate of global biodiversity loss might already be consistent with the standard definition of a mass extinction. But even if true, current extinction rate estimates (20-8343 times background rates) would not necessarily imply a mass extinction is currently unfolding, because this claim can only be verified a posteriori. Our projections instead indicate that there is a high risk of not recognising a mass extinction as it unfolds -- 49% across all parametrisations we explored. Furthermore, the temporal scale required for a mass extinction to materialise is orders of magnitude longer than relevant policy and legislative horizons, a mismatch that might appear to absolve todays society of responsibility. In reality, the opposite is true -- underestimating the likelihood of already being on a trajectory toward a mass extinction could have catastrophic consequences for future generations and historical accountability. Future generations will be forced to confront a world they perceive as normal, unaware of how much better off humanity could have been.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Trait-space disparity in fish communities spanning 380 million years from the Late Devonian to present

The diversity and distribution of species traits in an ecological community determine how it functions. While modern fish communities conse rve trait space across similar habitats, little is known about trait-space variation through deep time or across different habitats. We examined how fish trait diversity varies through space and time by comparing three Late Devonian fish communities -- a tropical reef (Gogo, Australia), a tropical estuary (Miguasha, Canada), and a temperate freshwater system (Canowindra, Australia) -- with six modern communities from diverse habitats. Trait-space metrics reflecting within-community diversity (functional richness) and species similarity (functional nearest-neighbour distance) indicated Late Devonian communities had scores similar to modern communities. However, they were less functionally rich than their closest modern analogues, and their species tended to be more functionally distinct from one another. Metrics describing location in trait space (centroid distances and hypervolume overlap) showed modern communities were similar to each other, Gogo and Miguasha were similar but distinct from modern communities, and Canowindra was distinct from all others. This pattern suggests period-associated differentiation and substantial heterogeneity among some Late Devonian communities. In addition to temporal changes, we found consistent differences associated with habitat type and climate zone. Reef and tropical communities were the most functionally rich, whereas functional nearest-neighbour scores were highest in estuarine and temperate communities. These results indicate fish community trait space varies with time, habitat and climate, suggesting (i) lability in fish trait space and (ii) that evolutionary history, environmental filtering, and stochasticity influence community assembly.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2023

Stochastic population models to identify optimal and cost-effective harvest strategies for feral pig eradication

Eradicating feral pigs from island ecosystems can assist in restoring damaged biodiversity values and protect commercial industries such as agriculture. Although many feral pig eradications have been attempted, management decisions are often led by practitioner experience rather than empirical evidence. Few interventions have been guided by population models to identify harvest rates necessary to achieve eradication within a specified time frame, nor have they applied data on control effort and cost to evaluate the relative cost-effectiveness of proposed control strategies. We used effort and cost data from a feral pig-control program on Kangaroo Island, South Australia over 17 months to derive functional-response relationships between control effort (hours pig-1) and pig abundance for four control methods: (i) ground-based shooting, (ii) trapping with remote triggers, (iii) poison baiting, and (iv) thermal-assisted aerial culling. We developed a stochastic Leslie matrix with compensatory density feedback on survival and fertility to project population trajectories from an initial population (N0) of 250 female pigs with an estimated island-wide carrying capacity (K) of 2500 over 3 and 10 years for populations subjected to an annual harvest of 35% to 95%. We built functional-response models to calculate annual effort and cost for six cull scenarios across all harvest rates. We derived total cost and effort over 3- and 10-year projections from the sum of annual cost and effort within the projection intervals. Pig populations were reduced to < 10% N0 based on harvest rates > 70% and 50% for culls of 3- and 10-year duration, respectively. In all scenarios except trapping only, the total cost to reduce population to [≤] 10% of N0 decreased with increasing harvest proportion, with lower total costs incurred over 3 years compared to 10 years. The simulations suggest that the most cost-effective approach for most scenarios is to maximise annual harvest and complete eradication effort over the shortest periods.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Predicting predator-prey interactions in terrestrial endotherms using random forest

Species interactions play a fundamental role in ecosystems. However, few ecological communities have complete data describing such interactions, which is an obstacle to understanding how ecosystems function and respond to perturbations. Because it is often impractical to collect empirical data for all interactions in a community, various methods have been developed to infer interactions. Machine learning is increasingly being used for making interaction predictions, with random forest being one of the most frequently used of these methods. However, performance of random forest in inferring predator-prey interactions in terrestrial vertebrates and its sensitivity to training data quality remain untested. We examined predator-prey interactions in two diverse, primarily terrestrial vertebrate classes: birds and mammals. Combining data from a global interaction dataset and a specific community (Simpson Desert, Australia), we tested how well random forest predicted predator-prey interactions for mammals and birds using species ecomorphological and phylogenetic traits. We also tested how variation in training data quality--manipulated by removing records and switching interaction records to non-interactions--affected model performance. We found that random forest could predict predator-prey interactions for birds and mammals using ecomorphological or phylogenetic traits, correctly predicting up to 88% and 67% of interactions and non-interactions in the global and community-specific datasets, respectively. These predictions were accurate even when there were no records in the training data for focal species. In contrast, false non-interactions for focal predators in training data strongly degraded model performance. Our results demonstrate that random forest can identify predator-prey interactions for birds and mammals that have few or no interaction records. Furthermore, our study provides guidance on how to prepare training data to optimise machine-learning classifiers for predicting species interactions, which could help ecologists (i) address knowledge gaps and explore network-related questions in data-poor situations, and (ii) predict interactions for range-expanding species.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Density-independent processes decouple component and ensemble density feedbacks

Analysis of long-term trends in abundance provide insights into population dynamics. Population growth rates are the emergent interplay of fertility, survival, and dispersal, but the density feedbacks on some vital rates (component) can be decoupled from density feedback on population growth rates (ensemble). However, the mechanisms responsible for this decoupling are poorly understood. We simulated component density feedbacks on survival in age-structured populations of long-living vertebrates and quantified how imposed nonstationarity (density-independent mortality and variation in carrying-capacity) modified the ensemble feedback signal estimated from logistic-growth models to the simulated abundance time series. The statistical detection of ensemble density feedback was largely unaffected by density-independent processes, but catastrophic and proportional mortality eroded the effect of density-dependent survival on ensemble-feedback strength more strongly than variation in carrying capacity. Thus, phenomenological models offer a robust approach to capture density feedbacks from nonstationary census data when density-independent mortality is low.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Modelling effects of water regulation on the population viability of threatened amphibians

The regulation of river systems alters hydrodynamics and often reduces lateral connectivity between river channels and floodplains. For taxa such as frogs that rely on floodplain wetlands to complete their lifecycle, decreasing inundation frequency can reduce recruitment and increase the probability of local extinction. We virtually reconstructed the inundation patterns of wetlands under natural and regulated flow conditions and built stochastic population models to quantify the probability of local extinction under different inundation scenarios. Specifically, we explored the interplay of habitat size, inundation frequency, and successive dry years on the local extinction probability of the threatened southern bell frog Litoria raniformis in the Murray River floodplains of South Australia. We hypothesised that the changes to wetland inundation resulting from river regulation are a principal driver of L. raniformis declines in this semi-arid system. Regulation has reduced the inundation frequency of essential habitats below critical thresholds for the persistence of many fresh water-dependent species. Successive dry years raise the probability of local extinction, and these effects are strongest in smaller wetlands. Larger wetlands and those with more frequent average inundation are less susceptible to these effects. Elucidating these trends informs the prioritisation of treatment sites and the frequency of conservation interventions. Environmental water provision (through pumping or the operation of flow-regulating structures) is a promising tool to reduce the probability of breeding failure and local extinction. Our modelling approach can be used to prioritise the delivery of environmental water to L. raniformis and potentially many other frog species.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Sahul's megafauna were vulnerable to extinction due to their position in the trophic network

Extinctions stemming from environmental change often trigger trophic cascades and coextinctions. However, it remains unclear whether trophic cascades were a large contributor to the megafauna extinctions that swept across several continents in the Late Pleistocene. The pathways to megafauna extinctions are particularly unclear for Sahul (landmass comprising Australia and New Guinea), where extinctions happened earlier than on other continents. We investigated the role of bottom-up trophic cascades in Late Pleistocene Sahul by constructing pre-extinction (~ 80 ka) trophic network models of the vertebrate community of Naracoorte, south-eastern Australia. These models allowed us to predict vertebrate species vulnerability to cascading extinctions based on their position in the network. We tested whether the observed extinctions could be explained by bottom-up cascades, or if they should be attributed to other external causes. Species that disappeared from the community were more vulnerable, overall, to bottom-up cascades than were species that survived. The position of extinct species in the network - having few or no predators - also suggests they might have been particularly vulnerable to a new predator. These results provide quantitative evidence that trophic cascades and naivety to predators could have contributed to the megafauna extinction event in Sahul.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Relative demographic susceptibility does not explain the extinction chronology of Sahul's megafauna

The causes of Sahuls megafauna extinctions remain uncertain, although multiple, interacting factors were likely responsible. To test hypotheses regarding plausible ecological mechanisms underlying these extinctions, we constructed the first stochastic, age-structured models for 13 extinct megafauna species from five functional/taxonomic groups, as well as 8 extant species within these groups for comparison. Perturbing specific demographic rates individually, we tested which species were more demographically susceptible to extinction, and then compared these relative sensitivities to the fossil-derived extinction chronology. Here we show that the macropodiformes were the most resilient to extinction, followed by carnivores, monotremes, vombatiform herbivores, and large birds. Five of the eight extant species were as or more susceptible than were the extinct species. There was no clear relationship between extinction susceptibility and the extinction chronology for any perturbation scenario, but body mass and generation length explained much of the variation in relative risk. Our models reveal that the actual mechanisms leading to extinction were unlikely related to variation in demographic susceptibility per se, but were driven instead by finer-scale variation in climate change and/or human prey choice and relative hunting success.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Predicting feral cat-reduction targets and costs on large islands using stochastic population models

Feral cats are some of the most destructive invasive predators worldwide, particularly in insular environments; hence, density-reduction campaigns are often applied to alleviate the predation mortality they add to native fauna. Density-reduction and eradication efforts are costly procedures with important outcomes for native fauna recovery, so they require adequate planning to be successful. These plans need to include empirical density-reduction models that can guide yearly culling quotas, and resource roll-out for the duration of the culling period. This ensures densities are reduced over the long term and that no resources are wasted. We constructed a stochastic population model with cost estimates to test the relative effectiveness and cost-efficiency of two main culling scenarios for a 10-year eradication campaign of cats on Kangaroo Island, Australia: (1) constant proportional annual cull (one-phase), and (2) high initial culling followed by a constant proportional maintenance cull (two-phase). A one-phase cull of at least 0.35 of the annual population size would reduce the final population to 0.1 of its original size, while a two-phase cull with an initial cull of minimum 0.6 and minimum 0.5 maintenance cull would reduce the final population to 0.01 of its initial size by 2030. Cost estimates varied widely depending on the methods applied (shooting, trapping, aerial poison baits, Felixer poison-delivery system), but using baiting, trapping and Felixers with additional shooting to meet culling quotas was the most cost-effective combination (minimum cost: AU$19.56 million; range: AU$16.87 million-AU$20.69 million). Our model provides an adaptable and general assessment tool for cat reductions in Australia and potentially elsewhere, and provides relative culling costs for the Kangaroo Island programme specifically.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

A spatially explicit and mechanistic model for exploring coral reef dynamics

The complexity of coral-reef ecosystems makes it challenging to predict their dynamics and resilience under future disturbance regimes. Models for coral-reef dynamics do not adequately accounts for the high functional diversity exhibited by corals. Models that are ecologically and mechanistically detailed are therefore required to simulate the ecological processes driving coral reef dynamics. Here we describe a novel model that includes processes at different spatial scales, and the contribution of species functional diversity to benthic-community dynamics. We calibrated and validated the model to reproduce observed dynamics using empirical data from Caribbean reefs. The model exhibits realistic community dynamics, and individual population dynamics are ecologically plausible. A global sensitivity analysis revealed that the number of larvae produced locally, and interaction-induced reductions in growth rate are the parameters with the largest influence on community dynamics. The model provides a platform for virtual experiments to explore diversity-functioning relationships in coral reefs.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2017

Gender-biased perceptions of important ecology articles

Gender bias is still unfortunately rife in the sciences, and men co-author most articles (> 70%) in ecology. Whether ecologists subconsciously rate the quality of their peers work more favourably if men are the dominant co-authors is still unclear. To test this hypothesis, we examined how expert ecologists ranked important ecology articles based on a previously compiled list. Women proposed articles with a higher average proportion of women co-authors (0.18) than did men proposers (0.07). For the 100 top-ranked articles, women voters placed more emphasis on articles co-authored by women (0.06) than did men (0.02). However, women voters were still biased because they ranked men-dominated articles more highly, albeit not by as much as men did. This effect disappeared after testing read-only articles. This indicates a persistent, subconscious bias that men-dominated articles are considered to be of higher quality before actual assessment. We add that ecologists need to examine their own subconscious biases when appointing students, hiring staff, and choosing colleagues with whom to publish.

ecology↗