Bouwhuis, S. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2025

Outbreak dynamics of high pathogenicity avian influenza virus H5N1, clade 2.3.4.4b euBB, in black-headed gulls and common terns in Germany in 2023

Since winter 2022/23, high pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b, genotype euBB, has caused extensive mortality among wild birds. This genotype emerged in France in spring 2022 through reassortment between a gull-adapted low-pathogenicity virus and HPAIV H5N1. Phylogeographic and spatiotemporal analyses show that transmission into German breeding colonies of black-headed gulls (Chroicocephalus ridibundus) and common terns (Sterna hirundo) involved multiple independent incursions, likely via black-headed gulls returning from wintering grounds in the Netherlands, Belgium, and France. It spilled over into common terns, which breed in shared colonies with black-headed gulls, and led to high adult mortality in both species in 2023 (at least 8,137 black-headed gulls and 614 common terns; >3% of the breeding population), followed by significant breeding pair declines in 2024 (-15.9% in black-headed gulls, -5.8% in common terns). Increased immunity, at least in common terns, may have contributed to the apparent fade-out of genotype euBB. These findings highlight how integrating ornithological, epidemiological, and virological data can aid our understanding of viral transmission routes and population-level impacts, while also stressing that HPAIV should be added to the growing list of pressures on seabirds, a group that was already the most threatened among all bird taxa globally. Research Highlights- HPAIV H5N1 euBB caused mass mortality in gulls and terns in Germany in 2023 - Multiple independent viral incursions occurred into different parts of Germany - Serology showed survival and rising H5-seroprevalence in common terns - Outbreaks reduced the black-headed gull breeding populations by up to 24%

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Counting Cases, Conserving Species: Addressing Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Wildlife

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has become a critical threat to wildlife, shifting from a seasonal epizootic to a persistent, year-round panzootic with global consequences. Here, we summarize the origin, evolutionary mechanisms, and expanding host range of the current H5N1 virus (clade 2.3.4.4b) and assess its impact on wildlife. Over the past five years, HPAI has caused the deaths of millions of wild birds, causing dramatic population declines in several seabird species. However, comprehensive quantitative mortality data remain scarce, as existing records are often anecdotal, focus on localized mass die-offs, and thus represent only a fraction of the true magnitude of mortality. This gap in data limits the ability to predict outbreak dynamics and mitigate long-term consequences. Using the Northwestern European Sandwich Tern (Thalasseus sandvicensis) population as a case study, we demonstrate the value of integrating mortality data with ecological, serological and genetic data before, during and after an outbreak. This approach uncovered age-specific vulnerability, selective mortality, and population immunological responses. In addition, insights gained with respect to the role of breeding density, carcass removal, and host adaptation in modulating outbreak dynamics are likely to be generalizable across seabird species. The absence of a centralized and standardized wildlife mortality monitoring framework, on the other hand, remains a major barrier to effective outbreak forecasting and conservation planning. We argue that integrating field-based mortality data, population monitoring, serological assays, and genetic analyses within a One Health framework is essential to enable early detection, targeted mitigation, and robust evaluation of outbreak impacts. Without a proactive and data-driven approach to conservation, HPAI will continue to threaten global wildlife populations, with cascading ecological, economic and public health consequences.

ecology↗