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Bossuyt, N.

Publications and source records attributed to Bossuyt, N..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Bigger and Better? Representativeness of the Influenza A surveillance using one consolidated clinical microbiology laboratory data set as compared to the Belgian Sentinel Network of Laboratories

Infectious diseases remain a serious public health concern globally, while the need for reliable and representative surveillance systems remains as acute as ever. The public health surveillance of infectious diseases uses reported positive results from sentinel clinical laboratories or laboratory networks, to survey the presence of specific microbial agents known to constitute a threat to public health in a given population. This monitoring activity is commonly based on a representative fraction of the microbiology laboratories nationally reporting to a single central reference point. However in recent years a number of clinical microbiology laboratories (CML) have undergone a process of consolidation involving a shift towards laboratory amalgamation and closer real-time informational linkage. This report aims to investigate whether such merging activities might have a potential impact on infectious diseases surveillance. Influenza data was used from Belgian public health surveillance 2014-2017, to evaluate whether national infection trends could be estimated equally as effectively from only just one centralised CML serving the wider Brussels area (LHUB-ULB). The overall comparison reveals that there is a close correlation and representativeness of the LHUB-ULB data to the national and international data for the same time periods, both on epidemiological and molecular grounds. Notably, the effectiveness of the LHUB-ULB surveillance remains partially subject to local regional variations. These results illustrate that centralised CML-derived data are not only credible but also advantageous to use for future surveillance and prediction purposes, especially for automatic detection systems that might include multiple layers of information and timely implementation of control strategies.

epidemiology

The impact of regular school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics: a data-driven spatial transmission model for Belgium

School closure is often considered as an option to mitigate influenza epidemics because of its potential to reduce transmission in children and then in the community. The policy is still however highly debated because of controversial evidence. Moreover, the specific mechanisms leading to mitigation are not clearly identified.\n\nWe introduced a stochastic spatial age-specific metapopulation model to assess the role of holiday-associated behavioral changes and how they affect seasonal influenza dynamics. The model is applied to Belgium, parameterized with country-specific data on social mixing and travel, and calibrated to the 2008/2009 influenza season. It includes behavioral changes occurring during weekend vs. weekday, and holiday vs. school-term. Several experimental scenarios are explored to identify the relevant social and behavioral mechanisms.\n\nStochastic numerical simulations show that holidays considerably delay the peak of the season and mitigate its impact. Changes in mixing patterns are responsible for the observed effects, whereas changes in travel behavior do not alter the epidemic. Weekends are important in slowing down the season by periodically dampening transmission. Christmas holidays have the largest impact on the epidemic, however later school breaks may help in reducing the epidemic size, stressing the importance of considering the full calendar. An extension of the Christmas holiday of 1 week may further mitigate the epidemic.\n\nChanges in the way individuals establish contacts during holidays are the key ingredient explaining the mitigating effect of regular school closure. Our findings highlight the need to quantify these changes in different demographic and epidemic contexts in order to provide accurate and reliable evaluations of closure effectiveness. They also suggest strategic policies in the distribution of holiday periods to minimize the epidemic impact.

epidemiology