Bombi, P. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2020

Very high extinction risk for Welwitschia mirabilis in the northern Namib Desert

One of the most recognisable icon of the Namib Desert is the endemic gymnosperm Welwitschia mirabilis. Recent studies indicated that climate change may seriously affect populations in the northern Namibia subrange (Kunene region) but their extinction risk has not yet been assessed. In this study, we apply IUCN criteria to define the extinction risk of welwitschia populations in northern Namibia and assign them to a red list category. We collected field data in the field to estimate relevant parameters for this assessment. We observed 1330 plants clustered in 12 small and isolated stands. The extent of occurrence has a surface of 214.2 km2 (i.e. < 5000 km2) and the area of occupancy a surface of 56.0 km2 (i.e. < 500 km2). The quality of habitat is expected to face a reduction of 69.47 % (i.e. > 50 %) as a consequence of climate change predicted in the area. These data indicate a very high extinction risk for welwitschia in northern Kunene and classify these populations as endangered (EN) according to IUCN criteria. Similar assessments for other subranges are prevented by the lack of relevant data, an issue that deserves further research attention. Our results advocate the necessity of a management plan for the species, including measures for mitigating the impact of climate change on isolated populations across its fragmented range.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Evidence of climate change impacts on the iconic Welwitschia mirabilis in the Namib Desert

Climate change represents an important threat to global biodiversity and African ecosystems are particularly vulnerable. Recent studies predicted substantial variations of climatic suitability for Welwitschia mirabilis under future conditions. Latitudinal/altitudinal range shifts are well-known responses to climate change but not coherent patterns were documented. This study aims to verify whether welwitschia populations are responding to climate change and if the assumption of a latitudinal/altitudinal shift is applicable. We collected field data on welwitschia distribution, health condition, reproductive status, and plant size in northern Namibia. We used ecological niche models to predict the expected geographic shift of climatic suitability under future scenarios. For each variable, we compared the observed pattern with the expected responses. Finally, we tested the presence of simple geographical gradients in the observed patterns. The realized thermal niche of welwitschia will be almost completely unavailable in the next 30 years in northern Namibia. Expected reductions of climatic suitability in the stand sites are strongly associated with indicators of negative population conditions. The same population conditions does not fit any simple latitudinal or altitudinal gradient. The observed pattern of population conditions mirrors the expected pattern of climate change effect but no simple geographical gradient was relieved. Overall, we observed negative population conditions in areas with stronger reductions of suitability. This makes welwitschia a suitable sentinel for climate change effect in the Namib Desert ecosystems. Our approach to detect population responses to climate change could be extensively adopted for selecting sentinel species in other regions and ecosystems.

ecology↗