Biology subjects

Benitez-Lopez, A.

Publications and source records attributed to Benitez-Lopez, A..

5 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2025

Identifying the exposure of taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity of steppe birds to renewable energy developments

Biodiversity is globally threatened by human impacts including land use transformation and climate change. Global warming has prompted a rapid transition from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources such as photovoltaic (PV) energy. However, utility-scale PV plants demand vast areas and can lead to conflicts with biodiversity conservation, making strategic planning essential. We evaluate the spatial overlap between conservation priorities and PV infrastructure using steppe birds--a highly threatened bird group occurring in lands potentially suitable for PV plants--as a model. First, we quantified and mapped taxonomic (TD), functional (FD), and phylogenetic diversity (PD) of 26 species across a main stronghold for European steppe birds (mainland Spain and Balearic Islands) to identify prioritization scenarios that best preserved all steppe bird diversity facets (TD, FD, and PD), and steppe birds of conservation concern. Next, we generated a diversity hotspot map based on the combination of TD, FD, and PD and overlapped with existing PV infrastructure to determine: (1) exposure areas (high diversity hotspots with high PV occupancy), and (2) no-go areas (high diversity hotspots with low/null PV occupancy). We found that the prioritization scenario combining TD+FD+PD retained 68.5% of TD, 75.5% of FD, 59.7% of PD, and 62.8% of areas with species of conservation concern, providing a more balanced representation across biodiversity facets than other prioritization scenarios. PV infrastructure currently occurs in 53.1% of high diversity hotspot cells. Overall, exposure areas (7.2% of the study area) were mainly concentrated in Central, Southern, and Northwestern Spain, while no-go areas (19.9% of the study area) were concentrated in Northern, Central, and Central-Western Spain. Our methodology is adaptable to other species, communities and regions, offering a robust framework for balancing development projects with biodiversity conservation. As the transition to renewable energy accelerates, including biodiversity in energy planning is crucial for preventing irreversible ecological losses.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2023

Modelling the probability of meeting IUCN Red List criteria to support reassessments.

Comparative extinction risk analysis - which predicts species extinction risk from correlation with traits or geographical characteristics - has gained research attention as a promising tool to support extinction risk assessment in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. However, its uptake has been very limited so far, possibly because these models only predict a species Red List category, without indicating which Red List criteria may be triggered by which such approaches cannot easily be used in Red List assessments. We overcome this implementation gap by developing models that predict the probability of species meeting individual Red List criteria. Using data on the worlds birds, we evaluated the predictive performance of our criterion-specific models and compared it with the typical criterion-blind modelling approach. We compiled data on biological traits (e.g., range size, clutch size) and external drivers (e.g., change in canopy cover) often associated with extinction risk. For each specific criterion, we modelled the relationship between extinction risk predictors and species Red List category under that criterion using ordinal regression models. We found criterion-specific models were better at predicting threatened species compared to a criterion-blind model (higher sensitivity), but less good at predicting not threatened species (lower specificity). As expected, different covariates were important for predicting threat status under different criteria, for example change in annual temperature was important to predict criteria related to population trends, while clutch size was important for criteria related to restricted area of occupancy or small population size. Our criteria-specific method can support Red List assessors by producing outputs that identify species likely to meet specific criteria, and which are the most important predictors: these species can be prioritised for re-evaluation. We expect this new approach to increase the uptake of extinction risk models in Red List assessments, bridging a long-standing research-implementation gap.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Assessing short- and long-term variations in diversity, timing, and body condition of migratory frugivorous birds

Under current global change context, climate change is driving substantial phenological mismatches between plant species and the organisms that rely on them. Given that frugivorous birds are fundamental for forest regeneration, and most of them are migrant species, identifying the effect of global change over them must be a priority. In this study we have analysed changes in the composition, morphometry, and physical condition in an avian community at long- (40 years) and short time (seasonal) spans. Our findings indicate a profound transformation at practically every level of analysis. In 40 years, the avian community shows a 66% and 13% decrease of the wintering and seed-disperser species, respectively. Seasonal abundance peaks were advanced in 13 out of 15 species. In addition, we have found a significant 1.5% increase in the morphometric measurements of certain species, supporting findings in previous studies, and also a remarkable general decrease of body condition. Our results point towards land use changes and climate change as the main causes. If this influence continues to rise, biodiversity will likely be irreversibly altered, damaging crucial ecosystem functions such as animal-mediated seed dispersal and forest regeneration in particular.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Assessing the reliability of species distribution projections in climate change research

AimForecasting changes in species distribution under future scenarios is one of the most prolific areas of application for species distribution models (SDMs). However, no consensus yet exists on the reliability of such models for drawing conclusions on species distribution response to changing climate. In this study we provide an overview of common modelling practices in the field and assess model predictions reliability using a virtual species approach. LocationGlobal MethodsWe first provide an overview of common modelling practices in the field by reviewing the papers published in the last 5 years. Then, we use a virtual species approach and three commonly applied SDM algorithms (GLM, MaxEnt and Random Forest) to assess the estimated (cross-validated) and actual predictive performance of models parameterized with different modelling settings and violations of modelling assumptions. ResultsOur literature review shows that most papers that model species distribution under climate change rely on single models (65%) and small samples (< 50 presence points, 62%), use presence-only data (85%), and binarize models output to estimate range shift, contraction or expansion (74%). Our virtual species approach reveals that the estimated predictive performance tends to be over-optimistic compared to the real predictive performance. Further, the binarization of predicted probabilities of presence reduces models predictive ability considerably. Sample size is one of the main predictors of real accuracy, but has little influence on estimated accuracy. Finally, the inclusion of irrelevant predictors and the violation of modelling assumptions increases estimated accuracy but decreases real accuracy of model projections, leading to biased estimates of range contraction and expansion. Main conclusionsOur study calls for extreme caution in the application and interpretation of SDMs in the context of biodiversity conservation and climate change research, especially when modelling a large number of species where species-specific model settings become impracticable.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

The island rule explains consistent patterns of body size evolution across terrestrial vertebrates

Island faunas can be characterized by gigantism in small animals and dwarfism in large animals, but the extent to which this so-called island rule provides a general explanation for evolutionary trajectories on islands remains contentious. Here we use a phylogenetic meta-analysis to assess patterns and drivers of body size evolution across a global sample of paired island-mainland populations of terrestrial vertebrates. We show that island rule effects are widespread in mammals, birds and reptiles, but less evident in amphibians, which mostly tend towards gigantism. We also found that the magnitude of insular dwarfism and gigantism is mediated by climate as well as island size and isolation, with more pronounced effects in smaller, more remote islands for mammals and reptiles. We conclude that the island rule is pervasive across vertebrates, but that the implications for body size evolution are nuanced and depend on an array of context-dependent ecological pressures and environmental conditions.

ecology↗