Biology subjects

Beaumont, L. J.

Publications and source records attributed to Beaumont, L. J..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2023

Optimal investments in private land conservation depend more on landholder preferences than climate change

Effective private land conservation strategies that consider both landholder preferences and future climatic conditions are critical for preserving biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, the interaction and relative importance of these factors for conservation planning performance is unknown. Here, we assess the importance of considering landholder preferences and climate change for prioritising locations for conservation tenders to recruit landholders for conservation covenants. To achieve this we develop a planning framework that accounts for the tender process to optimise investment across regions and apply it to koala-focused tenders in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, exploring four planning approaches that consider or are ignorant to landholder preferences and the tender process and/or climate change. We find that optimal investments depend more on landholder preferences than climate change, and when landholder preferences are ignored, there is little benefit in accounting for climate change. Our analysis reveals new insights into this important interaction.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

How exposure to land use impacts and climate change may prune the tetrapod tree of life

Human domination of landscapes is a key driver of biodiversity loss, with the fingerprint of climate change becoming increasingly pronounced. Frameworks and tools for identifying threats to biodiversity are required to meet Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework targets for 2030 that call for, among other things, reducing or halting species extinction rates (1). Hence, we compiled a phylogenetic tree for terrestrial tetrapods, mapped hotspots of geographically restricted and evolutionarily distinct lineages, and identified which hotspots may simultaneously face the highest magnitudes of land use impacts and climate change. Across a quarter of Earths surface, hotspots contain the entire ranges of 45% of tetrapods, representing 39% of terrestrial tetrapod evolutionary heritage. By 2070, we estimate 8-13% of this heritage to occur entirely within hotspots highly exposed to climate change, with 13-29% of hotspots projected to experience high exposure to both stressors simultaneously. Most hotspots at highest risk occur in countries least able to take action. Our analysis highlights the need for global ambition and coordination to avoid catastrophic loss of tetrapod evolutionary heritage.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Climate-change risk analysis for global urban forests

Urban forests (i.e. all vegetation present in urban areas), provide environmental and socioeconomic benefits1 to more than half of the global population2. Projected climate change threatens these benefits to society3-5. Here, we assess vulnerability to climate change of 16,006 plant species present in the urban forests of 1,010 cities within 93 countries, using three vulnerability metrics: exposure, safety margin and risk. Exposure expresses the magnitude of projected changes in climate in a given area, safety margin measures species sensitivity to climate change, and risk is the difference between exposure and safety margin6. We identified 9,676 (60.5%) and 8,344 (52.1%) species exceeding their current climatic tolerance (i.e. safety margin) for mean annual temperature (MAT) and annual precipitation (AP), respectively. By 2050, 13,479 (84.2%) and 9,960 (62.2%) species are predicted to be at risk from projected changes in MAT and AP, respectively, with risk increasing in cities at lower latitudes. Our results can aid evaluation of the impacts of climate change on urban forests and identify the species most at risk. Considering future climates when selecting species for urban plantings will enhance the long-term societal benefits provided by urban forests, including their contribution to mitigating the magnitude and impacts of climate change.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Impacts of climate change on high priority fruit fly species in Australia

Tephritid fruit flies are among the most destructive horticultural pests and pose risks to Australias multi-billion-dollar horticulture industry. Currently, there are 11 pest fruit fly species of economic concern present in various regions of Australia. Of these, nine are native to this continent (Bactrocera aquilonis, B. bryoniae, B. halfordiae, B. jarvisi, B. kraussi, B. musae, B. neohumeralis, B. tryoni and Zeugodacus cucumis), while B. frauenfeldi and Ceratitis capitata are introduced. To varying degrees these species are costly to Australias horticulture through in-farm management, monitoring to demonstrate pest freedom, quarantine and trade restrictions, and crop losses. Here, we used a common species distribution modelling approach, Maxent, to assess habitat suitability for these 11 species under current and future climate scenarios. These projections indicate that the Wet Tropics is likely to be vulnerable to all 11 species. The east coast of Australia will likely remain vulnerable to multiple species until at least 2070. Both the Cape York Peninsula and Northern Territory are also likely to be vulnerable, however, extrapolation to novel climates in these areas decrease confidence in model projections. The climate suitability of current major horticulture regions in north-western Australia, the Northern Territory, southern-central regions of New South Wales and southern Victoria to these pests is projected to increase as climate changes. Our study highlights areas at risk of pest range expansion in the future, to guide Australias horticulture industry in developing effective monitoring and management strategies.

ecology↗