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Beale, C. M.

Publications and source records attributed to Beale, C. M..

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Analysis of sparse animal social networks

Low-density social networks can be common in animal societies, even among species generally considered to be highly social. Social network analysis is commonly used to analyse animal societal structure, but edge weight (strength of association between two individuals) estimation methods designed for dense networks can produce biased measures when applied to low-density networks. Frequentist methods suffer when data availability is low, because they contain an inherent flat prior that will accept any possible edge weight value, and contain no uncertainty in their output. Bayesian methods can accept alternative priors, so can provide more reliable edge weights that include a measure of uncertainty, but they can only reduce bias when sensible prior values are selected. Currently, neither accounts for zero-inflation, so they produce edge weight estimates biased towards stronger associations than the true social network, which can be seen through diagnostic plots of data quality against output estimate. We address this by adding zero-inflation to the model, and demonstrate the process using group-based data from a population of male African savannah elephants. We show that the Bayesian approach performs better than the frequentist to reduce the bias caused by these problems, though the Bayesian requires careful consideration of the priors. We recommend the use of a Bayesian framework, but with a conditional prior that allows the modelling of zero-inflation. This reflects the fact that edge weight derivation is a two-step process: i) probability of ever interacting, and ii) frequency of interaction for those who do. Additional conditional priors could be added where the biology requires it, for example in a society with strong community structure, such as female elephants in which kin structure would create additional levels of social clustering. Although this approach was inspired by reducing bias observed in sparse networks, it could have value for networks of all densities.

animal behavior and cognition↗

Estimating the distribution of reed Phragmites australis in Britain demonstrates challenges of remotely sensing rare land cover types at large spatial scales

Reed Phragmites australis is important for biodiversity, for ecosystem services, and as a resource for humans. Already one of the mostly widely distributed wetland plants globally, reed has recently expanded outside of its native range, modifying ecosystems. However, like most wetland plant communities, reedbed has rarely been mapped at large geographical scales, restricting the information available to ecologists and resource managers. Using Sentinel-2 data and machine learning in open-source software, we produce the first remotely-sensed reedbed map of Britain. A random forest was trained on 79.2 ha of reedbed and 2,719.2 ha of non-reedbed land cover, using free online imagery. Accuracy was high within the training area (AUC > 0.998); however, field validation accuracy was much lower (AUC = 0.671), with many false positives (commission error of 93.4%). A similar workflow carried out in Google Earth Engine, using nearly an order of magnitude more images, gave a lower commission error but a disproportionately higher omission error. Due to the classification error, our map is more useful for a non-spatial estimate of the overall reedbed extent in Britain, rather than for the spatial location of reedbeds in Britain. Using the known commission and omission error, we estimate that in 2015 - 2017 c. 7800 ha of Britain was reedbed. Our study highlights the issues that present enduring barriers to accurate land cover classification at large spatial scales, perhaps suggesting fruitful areas for technological innovation. Even with a big data approach and even if technological issues are resolved, ecological factors such as confusion land cover types and geographical variation in temporal reflectance function will probably continue to impose upper limits on the size of area for which land cover can be classified accurately, and therefore on the utility of remote sensing to resource managers.

ecology↗

Incipient signs of genetic differentiation among African elephant populations in fragmenting miombo ecosystems in south-western Tanzania

Habitat fragmentation plays a major role in the reduction of genetic diversity among wildlife populations. The African savannah elephant population of the Ruaha-Rungwa and Katavi-Rukwa ecosystems in south-western Tanzania, comprises one of the worlds largest remaining elephant populations, but is increasingly threatened by loss of connectivity and poaching for ivory. We investigate whether there are incipient signs of genetic isolation (loss of heterozygosity) within the younger cohort as a result of habitat loss between the two ecosystems. To investigate the genetic structure of populations, we compared the genotypes for 11 microsatellite loci in the western (n = 81 individuals from Katavi-Rukwa), central (n = 36 individuals from Lukwati and Piti), and eastern populations (n = 193, individuals from Ruaha-Rungwa). We found evidence of significant genetic differentiation among the three populations, but the levels were low, suggesting recent divergence. Furthermore, we identified weak isolation by distance, suggesting higher gene flow among nearer individuals with samples within 50km of each other being more genetically similar to one another than beyond. Although sample sizes were small, a further analysis of genetic differences across populations and in separate age classes revealed evidence of increasing genetic structure among younger age classes across the landscape. In a long-lived species with overlapping generations, it takes a long time to develop genetic substructure even when there are substantial obstacles to migration. Thus, in these recently fragmented populations, inbreeding (and the loss of heterozygosity) may be less of an immediate concern than demography (the loss of adults due to illegal hunting).

ecology↗