Bates, O. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2026

Contributions of human-caused climate change and individual emitters to global coral bleaching

Coral bleaching is among the most infamous climate impacts. Yet the extent of bleaching due to human-caused climate change, as opposed to natural El Nino variability, and the contributions of individual countries and carbon majors (fossil fuel and cement producers) remains unquantified. Here, we leverage coral monitoring globally across 4,479 sites from 1985-2024 to link specific emitters to marine heat stress and bleaching. For events with >10% of corals bleached at a site, we find that 99% (95% CI: 88-100%) were attributable to human-caused climate change. Even during major El Ninos, 97-100% of bleaching events were attributable to human-caused climate change and the extent of damage increases over time from 23% of sites bleached (95% CI: 3-35%) during 1998 to 71% of sites (95% CI: 37-85%) during 2023-2024. Emissions of the United States, the largest historical emitter, contributed to 51% (95% CI: 39-65%) of bleaching events. Emissions linked to Chevron, Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, and ExxonMobil each contributed to 14% (95% CI: 11-19%) of bleaching events -- roughly double the contribution of the 39 countries of the Alliance for Small Island States. It is virtually certain emissions of China, the United States, and Indonesia caused bleaching in their coastal waters. Strong inequalities exist where countries with high socioeconomic dependence on coral reefs experienced 54% of bleaching yet contributed only 5% to bleaching. As global warming rapidly nears levels catastrophic for warm-water corals, our results show the massive contribution from anthropogenic emissions to historical coral beaching and help fill an important evidentiary gap on accountability for non-economic loss and damage from climate change.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Phenological turnover matters when making trait-based predictions of plant-pollinator interactions

1. Understanding the processes determining species interactions is key to predicting and safeguarding ecological networks under rapid environmental change. One approach to estimating interactions is to use morphologies of taxa interacting across trophic levels to reveal suites of traits they are more likely to interact with (i.e. a trait niche). 2. Previous work studying these morphological trait niches has typically used interactions between species that are pooled in space and time. However, species assemblages, and the traits of individuals within species, can change across even small landscapes over a season, leading to morphological trait space being dynamically reshaped. Therefore, it is unclear how morphological trait turnover affects our inferences of trait niches, and our ability to answer this is in part limited by a lack of individual-level trait data. 3. Here, we directly address this by studying a montane Arctic plant-pollinator community over five growing seasons (>1,300 hours of fieldwork). Specifically, we linked every recorded plant-bumblebee interaction with the traits of the bee individual involved (n = 1,150), to investigate 1) whether plant taxa (n = 10) exhibited bee trait niches by interacting with specific regions of multidimensional trait space of visiting bumblebees, and 2) how our inference of these trait niches was affected by considering bumblebee trait turnover and plant taxon turnover. 4. When not considering turnover (interactions in space and time are pooled), plant taxa demonstrated bee trait niches. However, next we considered how bee trait space is reshaped over the elevational and seasonal gradient (especially with the emergence of different castes), and how this reshaping co-occurs with different spatiotemporal ranges of the plant taxa. From this we found the degree to which plant taxa exhibited trait niches declined significantly, and that seasonal reshaping of bee trait space was the primary driver of this trend. 5. Overall, in highly dynamic systems, like the Arctic, overlooking community turnover could mask and even overestimate the ability of morphology to explain interactions. Hence, determining how morphological traits of individual interaction partners are in phenological synchrony at localised scales will be fundamental to understanding the role morphology plays in underpinning plant-pollinator interactions.

ecology↗