Biology subjects

Baskett, M. L.

Publications and source records attributed to Baskett, M. L..

14 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Restoration decisions in highly variable systems: Whether, when, and how to enhance kelp

In highly variable ecosystems, natural variability can obscure signals of decline that warrant intervention, as there is often a lack of long-term data needed to distinguish between declines that are transient and likely to recover naturally and those that would be permanent without intervention. Implementing restoration for a species involves deciding on a threshold condition at which to intervene, duration that this threshold needs to be met before intervening, life stages at introduction, and amounts to introduce. Current bull and giant kelp restoration efforts in California were spurred by persistent kelp loss that started in 2013 following a disease outbreak among predators of the primary herbivore and a marine heatwave. We asked how decisions about intervention cue, threshold, wait time, life stage at introduction, and amount affect population outcomes against a backdrop of environmental variability. We analyzed additional context-dependencies on grazing and climate intensity. To address these questions, we built and parameterized a stochastic stage-structured model for bull and giant kelp, in which we simulated kelp enhancement approaches under a range of grazing and climate scenarios. In a global sensitivity analysis of kelp enhancement decisions, we found that grazing intensity and life stages at introduction were the most influential determinants of kelp biomass and persistence outcomes. The kelp enhancement approach involving temporarily introduced juveniles restored the germ banks of bull and giant kelp, but the two species differed in their responses to that intervention, highlighting that optimal intervention approach is species-dependent. Waiting longer for natural recovery before intervening reduced total intervention effort but also reduced biomass recovery potential. These results support empirical findings from kelp enhancement pilot projects in California and highlight context-dependencies that inform restoration decision-making in kelp forests and other highly variable ecosystems.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Spatiotemporal Models Reveal Dynamic Growth Patterns in U.S. West Coast Groundfish

Variability in somatic growth of marine fish affects their reproductive potential and survival, and therefore, the productivity of a population. Understanding how growth might vary among species with similar traits can improve predictions of population status and responses to environmental change. We used geostatistical models to characterize spatiotemporal variability in growth rate and body condition, two interrelated traits associated with somatic growth, of nine commercially important U.S. West Coast groundfish species with a range of life-history traits and depth distributions. Our models uncover spatiotemporal variability in growth rate and body condition in all nine groundfish species with limited trends shared among species with similar traits, suggesting a greater influence from niche partitioning acting on local scales. Such interspecific differences in growth rate and body condition responses also occurred at regional scales, with some species exhibiting positive responses while others declined. These findings reveal the dynamic nature of somatic growth among groundfish species and provide insight into potential mechanisms of its variability that could be considered within climate-enhanced assessments of population status for marine fish.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Restoring local climate refugia to enhance the capacity for dispersal-limited species to track climate change

Climate refugia are areas where species can persist through climate change with little to no movement. Among the factors associated with climate refugia are high spatial heterogeneity, such that there is only a short distance between current and future optimal climates, as well as biotic or abiotic environmental factors which buffer against variability in time. However, climate refugia may be declining due to anthropogenic homogenization of environments and degradation of environmental buffers. To quantify the potential for restoration of refugia-like environmental conditions to increase population persistence under climate change, we simulated a populations capacity to track increasing temperatures over time given different levels of spatial and temporal variability in temperature. To determine how species traits affected the efficacy of restoring heterogeneity, we explored an array of values for species dispersal ability, thermal tolerance, and fecundity. We found that species were more likely to persist in environments with higher local heterogeneity and lower environmental stochasticity. When simulating a management action that increased the local heterogeneity of a previously homogenized environment, species were more likely to persist through climate change, and population sizes were generally higher, but there was little effect with mild temperature change. The benefits of heterogeneity restoration were greatest for species with limited dispersal ability. In contrast, species with longer dispersal but lower fecundity were more likely to benefit from a reduction in environmental stochasticity than an increase in spatial heterogeneity. Our results suggest that restoring environments to refugia-like conditions could promote species persistence under climate change in addition to conservation strategies such as assisted migration, corridors, and increased protection.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Quantifying the capacity for assisted migration to achieve conservation and forestry goals under climate change

Many tree species might be threatened with extinction because they cannot disperse or adapt quickly enough to keep pace with climate change. One potential, and potentially risky, strategy to mitigate this threat is assisted migration, the intentional movement of species to facilitate population range shifts to more climatically suitable locations under climate change. The ability for assisted migration to minimize risk and maximize conservation and forestry outcomes depends on a multi-faceted decision process for determining, what, where, and how much to move. To quantify how the benefits and risks of assisted migration could affect the decision-making process, we used a dynamical vegetation model parameterized with 23 tree species in the western United States. We found that most of the modeled species are likely to experience a substantial decline in biomass, potentially facing regional extinction by 2100 under the high-emission SSP5-85 climate-change scenario. Though simulations show assisted migration had little effect on the forestry goal of total biomass across all species, its effects on the conservation goal of promoting individual species persistence were far more substantial. Among eight assisted migration strategies we tested that differ in terms of life cycle stage of movement and target destination selection criteria, the approach that conserved the highest biomass for individual species involved relocating target seedlings to areas with the highest canopy openness. Although this strategy significantly reduced extinction risk for six at-risk species compared to no action, it also slightly reduced biomass of four species, due to increasing competition. Species with relatively weak tolerance to drought, fire or high temperature were the most likely candidate groups for assisted migration. This model framework could be applied to other forest ecosystems to evaluate the efficacy of assisted migration globally.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Trailing-edge zombie forests can increase population persistence in the face of climate change

Climate-driven habitat shifts pose challenges for dispersal-limited, late-maturing taxa such as trees. Older trees are often the most reproductive individuals in the population, but as habitats shift, these individuals can be left behind in the trailing range edge, generating "zombie forests" that may persist long after the suitable habitat has shifted. Are these zombie forests vestiges of ecosystems past or do they play an ecological role? To understand how zombie forests affect population persistence, we developed a spatially explicit, stage-structured model of tree populations occupying a shifting habitat. Our model shows that seed dispersal from zombie forests to the range core can considerably increase the maximum rate of climate change that a population can withstand. Moreover, the entire core population can ultimately descend from recruitment-limited zombie forests, highlighting their demographic value. Our results suggest that preserving trailing-edge zombie forests can greatly increase population persistence in the face of climate change.

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bioRxiv2021

Comparing management strategies for conserving communities of climate-threatened species with a stochastic metacommunity model

Many species are shifting their ranges to keep pace with climate change, but habitat fragmentation and limited dispersal could impede these range shifts. In the case of climate-vulnerable foundation species such as tropical reef corals and temperate forest trees, such limitations might put entire communities at risk of extinction. Restoring connectivity through corridors, stepping-stones, or enhanced quality of existing patches could prevent the extinction of several species, but dispersal-limited species might not benefit if other species block their dispersal. Alternatively, managers might relocate vulnerable species between habitats through assisted migration, but this is generally a species-by-species approach. To evaluate the relative efficacy of these strategies, we simulated the climate-tracking of species in randomized competitive metacommunities with alternative management interventions. We found that corridors and assisted migration were the most effective strategies at reducing extinction. Assisted migration was especially effective at reducing the extinction likelihood for short-dispersing species, but it often required moving several species repeatedly. Assisted migration was more effective at reducing extinction in environments with higher stochasticity, and corridors were more effective at reducing extinction in environments with lower stochasticity. We discuss the application of these approaches to an array of systems ranging from tropical corals to temperate forests.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

How far to build it before they come? Analyzing the use of the Field of Dreams hypothesis in bull kelp restoration

In restoration ecology, the Field of Dreams Hypothesis posits that restoration efforts that create a suitable environment could lead to eventual recovery of the remaining aspects of the ecosystem through natural processes. Natural processes following partial restoration has lead to ecosystem recovery in both terrestrial and aquatic systems. However, understanding the efficacy of a "field of dreams" approach requires comparison of different approaches to partial restoration in terms of spatial, temporal, and ecological scale to what would happen with more comprehensive restoration efforts. We explore the relative effect of partial restoration and ongoing recovery on restoration efficacy with a dynamical model based on temperate rocky reefs in Northern California. We analyze our model for both the ability and rate of bull kelp forest recovery under different restoration strategies. We compare the efficacy of a partial restoration approach with a more comprehensive restoration effort by exploring how kelp recovery likelihood and rate change with varying intensities of urchin removal and kelp outplanting over different time periods and spatial scales. We find that, for the case of bull kelp forests, setting more favorable initial conditions for kelp recovery through implementing both urchin harvesting and kelp outplanting at the start of the restoration project has a bigger impact on the kelp recovery rate than applying restoration efforts through a longer period of time. Therefore partial restoration efforts, in terms of spatial and temporal scale, can be significantly more effective when applied across multiple ecological scales in terms of both the capacity and rate of achieving the target outcomes.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Species heterogeneity in food webs can reduce the potential for alternative stable states

Alternative stable ecosystem states are possible under the same environmental conditions in many models of 2-3 interacting species and an array of feedback loops. However, multi-species food webs might dissipate the feedbacks that create alternative stable states through species-specific traits and feedbacks. To test this potential, we develop a manyspecies model of consumer-resource interactions with two classes of feedbacks: specialized feedbacks where individual resources become unpalatable at high abundance, or aggregate feedbacks where overall resource abundance reduces consumer recruitment. We quantify how trophic interconnectedness and species differences in demography affect the potential for either feedback to produce alternative stable states dominated by consumers or resources. We find that alternative stable states are likely to happen in many-species food webs when aggregate feedbacks or lower species differences increase redundancy in species contributions to persistence of the consumer guild. Conversely, specialized palatability feedbacks with distinctive species roles in consumer guild persistence reduce the potential for alternative states but increase the likelihood that losing vulnerable consumers cascades into a food web collapse at low stress levels, a dynamic absent in few-species models. Altogether, among-species trait variation can limit the set of processes that create alternative stable states and impede consumer recovery from disturbance.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Fishing the line depends on reserve benefits, individual losing at boundary and movement preference

Whether fishing around the marine reserve edge can enhance harvested yields is an important issue in fisheries management. To solve the conundrum is difficult because of the lack of a matched boundary condition. Here, we derive a new boundary condition by considering individual losing at habitat boundaries. With the suitable boundary condition, our results suggest that individuals with high growth rate inside but low growth rate outside the reserve and high movement preference to a large marine reserve boundary can enhance yields benefits from fishing around the marine reserve edge. The findings provide theoretical cautions for fishing near some new reserves in which population growth rate might be low. Moreover, our boundary condition is general enough for the universal phenomenon of losing individual at habitat boundaries such as being applied into classic theories in refuge design to explain some previous counter-intuitive phenomena more reasonably.

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bioRxiv2019

Identifying robust strategies for assisted migration given risks and uncertainties in a stochastic metacommunity

Assisted migration is the translocation of species beyond their historical range to locations that are expected to be more suitable under future climate change. However, a relocated population might fail to establish within its donor community if there is high uncertainty in decision making, climate, and interactions with the recipient ecological community. To quantify the benefit to persistence and risk of establishment failure of assisted migration under different management scenarios, we built a stochastic metacommunity model to simulate several species reproducing, dispersing, and competing on a temperature gradient as temperature increases over time. Without assisted migration, the species in our model were vulnerable to climate change if they had low population sizes, short dispersal, and strong poleword competition. When relocating species that exemplified these traits, assisted migration increased the long-term persistence of the species most when relocating a fraction of the donor population, even if the remaining population was very small or rapidly declining. This suggests that leaving behind a fraction of the population could be a robust approach, allowing managers to repeat assisted migration in case they move the species at the wrong place and wrong time, especially when it is difficult to identify a species optimal climate. We found that assisted migration was most beneficial to species with low dispersal ability and least beneficial to species with narrow thermal tolerances, for which assisted migration increased extinction risk on average. Lastly, while relocation did not affect the persistence of non-target species in our simple competitive model, researchers will need to consider a more complete set of community interactions to comprehensively understand invasion potential.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Catastrophes, connectivity, and Allee effects in the design of marine reserve networks

Catastrophic events, like oil spills and hurricanes, occur in many marine systems. One potential role of marine reserves is buffering populations against disturbances, including the potential for disturbance-driven population collapses under Allee effects. This buffering capacity depends on reserves in a network providing rescue effects, with a potential trade-off in spacing between individual reserves to balance rescue via connectivity and independence of disturbances experienced. We use a set of population models to examine how dispersal ability and the disturbance regime interact to determine the optimal reserve spacing. We incorporate fishing in a spatially-explicit model to understand the consequences of objective choice (i.e. conservation versus fisheries yield) on the optimal reserve spacing. We show that the optimal spacing between reserves increases when accounting for catastrophes. This result is accentuated when Allee effects interact with catastrophes to increase the probability of extinction. We also show that classic tradeoffs between conservation and fishing objectives disappear in the presence of catastrophes. Specifically, we found that at intermediate levels of disturbance, it is optimal to spread out reserves in order to increase population persistence and to maximize spillover into non-reserve areas.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.View Full Text

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bioRxiv2019

Grazer behavior can regulate large-scale patterns of community states

Ecosystem patterning can arise from environmental heterogeneity, biological feedbacks that produce multiple persistent ecological states, or their interaction. One source of feed-backs is density-dependent changes in behavior that regulates species interactions. By fitting state-space models to large-scale ([~]500km) surveys on temperate rocky reefs, we find that behavioral feedbacks best explain why kelp and urchin barrens form either reef-wide patches or local mosaics. Best-supported models in California include feedbacks where starvation intensifies grazing across entire reefs create reef-scale, alternatively stable kelp- and urchin-dominated states (32% of reefs). Best-fitting models in New Zealand include the feedback of urchins avoiding dense kelp stands that can increase abrasion and predation risk, which drives a transition from shallower urchin-dominated to deeper kelp-dominated zones, with patchiness at 3-8m depths with intermediate wave stress. Connecting locally-studied processes with region-wide data, we highlight how behavior can explain community patterning and why some systems exhibit community-wide alternative stable states.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

At what spatial scales are alternative stable states relevant in highly interconnected ecosystems?

Whether ecosystems recover from disturbance depends on the presence of alternative stable states, which are theoretically possible in simple models of many systems. However, definitive empirical evidence for this phenomenon remains limited to demographically closed ecosystems such as lakes. In more interconnected systems such as temperate rocky reefs, the local relevance of alternative stable states might erode as immigration overwhelms local feedbacks and produces a single stable state. At larger spatial scales, dispersal might counter localized disturbance and feedbacks to synchronize states throughout a region. Here, we quantify how interconnectedness affects the relevance of alternative stable states using dynamical models of California rocky reef communities that incorporate observed environmental stochasticity and feedback loops in kelp-urchin-predator interactions. Our models demonstrate the potential for localized alternative states despite high interconnectedness likely due to feedbacks affecting dispersers as they settle into local communities. Regionally, such feedbacks affecting settlement can produce a mosaic of alternative stable states that span local (10-20km) scales despite the synchronizing effect of long-distance dispersal. The specific spatial scale and duration of each state predominantly depend on the scales of environmental variation and on local dynamics (here, fishing). Model predictions reflect observed scales of community states in California rocky reefs and suggest how alternative states co-occur in the wide array of marine and terrestrial systems with settlement feedbacks.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

Social information drives ecological outcomes among competing species

Through its behavior, an organism intentionally or unintentionally produces information. Use of this social information by surrounding conspecifics or heterospecifics is a ubiquitous phenomenon that can drive strong correlations in fitness-associated behaviors, such as predator avoidance, enhancing survival within and among competing species. By eliciting indirect positive interactions between competing individuals or species, social information might alter overall competitive outcomes. To test this potential, we present new theory that quantifies the effect of social information, modeled as predator avoidance signals/cues, on the outcomes from intraspecific and interspecific competition. Our analytical and numerical results reveal that social information can rescue populations from extinction and can shift the long-term outcome of competitive interactions from mutual exclusion to coexistence, or vice versa, depending on the relative strengths of intraspecific and interspecific social information and competition. Our findings highlight the importance of social information in determining ecological outcomes.

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