Biology subjects

Baskerville, E. B.

Publications and source records attributed to Baskerville, E. B..

4 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2018

Designing robust N-of-1 studies for precision medicine

Recent advances in molecular biology, sensors, and digital medicine have led to an explosion of products and services for high-resolution monitoring of individual health. The N-of-1 study has emerged as an important methodological tool for harnessing these new data sources, enabling researchers to compare the effectiveness of health interventions at the level of a single individual. We have developed a stochastic time series model that simulates an N-of-1 study, facilitating rapid optimization of N-of-1 study designs and increasing the likelihood of study success while minimizing participant burden. Using simulation, we demonstrate how the number of treatment blocks, ordering of treatments within blocks, duration of each treatment, and sampling frequency affect our ability to detect true differences in treatment efficacy. We provide a set of recommendations for study designs based on treatment, outcome, and instrument parameters, and provide our simulation software as a supplement to the paper.

bioinformatics↗

bioRxiv2017

Networks of genetic similarity reveal non-neutral processes shape strain structure in Plasmodium falciparum

Pathogens compete for hosts through patterns of cross-protection conferred by immune responses to antigens. In Plasmodium falciparum malaria, the var multigene family encoding for the major blood-stage antigen PfEMP1 has evolved enormous genetic diversity through ectopic recombination and mutation. With 50-60 var genes per genome, it is unclear whether immune selection can act as a dominant force in structuring var repertoires of local populations. The combinatorial complexity of the var system remains beyond the reach of existing strain theory, and previous evidence for non-random structure cannot demonstrate immune selection without comparison to neutral models. We develop two neutral models that encompass malaria epidemiology but exclude competitive interactions between parasites. These models, combined with networks of genetic similarity, reveal non-neutral strain structure in both simulated systems and an extensively sampled population in Ghana. The unique population structure we identify underlies the large transmission reservoir characteristic of highly endemic regions in Africa.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2017

Recurring infection with ecologically distinct human papillomavirus (HPV) types explains high prevalence and diversity

The high prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV), the most common sexually transmitted infection, arises from the coexistence of over 200 genetically distinct types. Accurately predicting the impact of vaccines that target multiple types requires understanding the factors that determine HPV diversity. The diversity of many pathogens is driven by type-specific or \"homologous\" immunity, which promotes the spread of variants to which hosts have little immunity. To test for homologous immunity and to identify mechanisms determining HPV transmission, we fitted nonlinear mechanistic models to longitudinal data on genital infections in unvaccinated men. Our results provide no evidence for homologous immunity, instead showing that infection with one HPV type strongly increases the risk of infection with that type for years afterwards. For HPV16, the type responsible for most HPV-related cancers, an initial infection increases the one-year probability of reinfection by 20-fold, and the probability of reinfection remains 14-fold higher two years later. This increased risk occurs in both sexually active and celibate men, suggesting that it arises from auto-inoculation, episodic reactivation of latent virus, or both. Overall our results show that high HPV prevalence and diversity can be explained by a combination of a lack of homologous immunity, frequent reinfections, weak competition between types, and variation in type fitness between host subpopulations. Due to the high risk of reinfection, vaccinating boys that have not yet been exposed may be crucial to reduce prevalence, but our results suggest that there may also be large benefits from vaccinating previously infected individuals.

epidemiology↗

bioRxiv2017

Host population structure and treatment frequency maintain balancing selection on drug resistance

It is a truism that antimicrobial drugs select for resistance, but explaining pathogen- and population-specific variation in patterns of resistance remains an open problem. Like other common commensals, Streptococcus pneumoniae has demonstrated persistent coexistence of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant strains. Theoretically, this outcome is unlikely. We modeled the dynamics of competing strains of S. pneumoniae to investigate the impact of transmission dynamics and treatment-induced selective pressures on the probability of stable coexistence. We find that the outcome of competition is extremely sensitive to structure in the host population, although coexistence can arise from age-assortative transmission models with age-varying rates of antibiotic use. Moreover, we find that the selective pressure from antibiotics arises not so much from the rate of antibiotic use per se but from the frequency of treatment: frequent antibiotic therapy disproportionately impacts the fitness of sensitive strains. This same phenomenon explains why serotypes with longer durations of carriage tend to be more resistant. These dynamics may apply to other potentially pathogenic, microbial commensals and highlight how population structure, which is often omitted from models, can have a large impact.

evolutionary biology↗