Biology subjects

Barreaux, P.

Publications and source records attributed to Barreaux, P..

5 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Suppression of Plasmodium falciparum infection by Microsporidia MB in wild Anopheles arabiensis populations

Symbiont-based approaches offer a promising strategy for reducing malaria transmission by suppressing Plasmodium development in Anopheles mosquitoes. Microsporidia MB, a naturally occurring microsporidian symbiont of Anopheles arabiensis, inhibits Plasmodium falciparum development in the laboratory, but its efficacy under natural transmission conditions is unknown. Here we monitored Microsporidia MB in wild An. arabiensis over 30 months in western Kenya and identified distinct low- and high-intensity infection phenotypes consistent with horizontal and vertical transmission, respectively. Overall, Microsporidia MB was associated with approximately 50% lower odds of P. falciparum infection. This association strengthened with symbiont intensity: high-intensity infections were associated with approximately 60% lower odds of Plasmodium infection compared with approximately 34% for low-intensity infections, identifying symbiont intensity as a key determinant of parasite-blocking efficacy. These findings provide evidence that Microsporidia MB suppresses P. falciparum infection in wild Anopheles populations, providing a key component of the field validation needed to advance Microsporidia MB as a candidate for malaria-control applications.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2026

From static thresholds to dynamic waves: How biological memory destabilizes malaria transmission Potential

The basic reproduction number R0 is central to malaria epidemiology, yet it is typically treated as a static quantity derived under memoryless assumptions for mosquito demography. In natural systems, however, mosquito populations are shaped by delayed processes such as larval development and density-dependent feedback, introducing biological memory into vector dynamics. We develop a minimal delay-based framework that incorporates this memory into the Ross-Macdonald model by describing adult mosquito abundance with a retarded differential equation. This formulation induces a time-dependent transmission potential R0(t). Using complex analysis and the argument principle, we derive an explicit stability threshold [Formula], which separates stable from oscillatory transmission regimes. Near this threshold, delayed feedback produces slow relaxation times and sustained transient oscillations, implying that transmission potential may vary intrinsically even in the absence of external forcing. To account for ecological variability, we extend this deterministic condition into a probabilistic framework and define the stability probability as [Formula]. Numerical simulations and global sensitivity analysis show that recruitment and developmental delays are the primary drivers of instability, while adult mortality has a weaker stabilizing effect. These results indicate that malaria interventions may influence not only the magnitude of malaria transmission but also its dynamical stability. By linking delay dynamics, transmission theory, and uncertainty quantification, this framework provides a basis for stability-aware modeling and interpretation of malaria transmission under ecological variability. Author summaryMalaria transmission is often summarized by a single number, R0, treated as a fixed indicator of whether transmission will increase or decline. This assumes mosquito populations respond instantly to environmental conditions. In reality, mosquitoes develop through stages where larval conditions, such as crowding, nutrition, or temperature, affect adult populations only after a delay. This creates biological memory: todays mosquitoes reflect past environments. We show that this memory can fundamentally reshape transmission dynamics. When developmental delays are included, transmission potential is no longer constant but can fluctuate over time, even in stable environments. These fluctuations can persist or amplify depending on the balance between mosquito growth, mortality, and delay. As a result, variability in mosquito abundance or malaria transmission may arise from intrinsic dynamics rather than external drivers alone. Under ecological variability, stability becomes probabilistic, allowing estimation of how likely transmission is to remain stable. Interventions that reduce larval productivity or increase adult mortality may therefore both lower transmission and make it more predictable, improving interpretation and control strategies.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Modelling framework to demonstrate elimination of a vector population: tsetse elimination in Chad

Every year, over 700 000 people, particularly children under five, die from vector-borne diseases worldwide. Effectively controlling current endemics and preventing new outbreaks requires an integrated approach that can lead to the elimination of both vectors and diseases. In the last two decades, integrating medical interventions and vector control has significantly reduced the incidence of Gambian Human African Trypanosomiasis (gHAT), with the World Health Organization validating eight countries as having eliminated the disease as a public health problem. However, elimination of the tsetse vector has not been confirmed, leaving the possibility of re-emergence. We developed a five-step modelling framework to assess vector elimination by calculating: (i) the probability of vector capture; (ii) the probability of observing a series of zero catches, even without actual elimination; (iii) the probability of natural elimination; (iv) the probability of failing to detect a rebound; and (v) the reinvasion risk. Our case study is g-HAT in Mandoul, Chad and the elimination of G. fuscipes fuscipes. We used vector control from 2014 to 2025 with no tsetse detected since 2018. We cannot yet conclude, with more than 90% confidence, that tsetse has been eliminated from Mandoul, nor that any remnant population will be naturally eliminated. However, since vector control was stopped in April 2025, we estimate that with continued sampling over the next two years, and no tsetse detected, elimination could be demonstrated with 99% confidence. Our multi-step modelling framework can be applied to other vectors, providing policymakers with clear guidelines for ongoing and future efforts. Significance StatementThe World Health Organisation has set the elimination of transmission of several neglected tropical vector-borne diseases, including human African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness), as a target for 2030. We show that deliberate elimination of tsetse, the vector, is feasible and can be demonstrated. We draw on our large-scale intervention in Mandoul, Chad where 3000 insecticide-treated Tiny Targets were deployed between 2014 and 2025, with no tsetse detected since 2018. While small undetected remnant populations cannot be entirely excluded, they would rapidly rebound in the absence of control, rendering them detectable. If no tsetse are caught over the next two years, it will confirm elimination. This illustrates a pathway for assessing and achieving vector elimination as a cornerstone of disease eradication.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2024

Temperature modulates the dissemination potential of Microsporidia MB, a malaria-blocking endosymbiont of Anopheles mosquitoes

The endosymbiont Microsporidia MB is a promising malaria control strategy that inhibits the development of Plasmodium naturally in Anopheles mosquitoes. To be successful, it would be necessary to significantly increase the prevalence of Microsporidia MB in populations of malaria mosquitoes to decrease the malaria transmission potential of the mosquito population. However, very little is known about the role of temperature in driving the prevalence of Microsporidia MB infections in mosquito populations. By rearing mosquito larvae under four air temperature regimes (22{degrees}C, 27{degrees}C, 32{degrees}C and 37{degrees}C), we show that warm temperatures favour the growth of Microsporidia MB infected larvae. In addition, Microsporidia MB infected larvae developed faster compared to the uninfected offspring of the same mothers. Starting with 10 Microsporidia MB infected mothers, our population growth model showed that, at 32{degrees}C, it would take 15-35 days to reach a population of 1000 Microsporidia MB infected mothers; this represents a dissemination potential of 4.7, 1.3 and 1.7 times higher compared to 22{degrees}C, 27{degrees}C and 37{degrees}C, respectively. Despite a relatively high mosquito mortality rate (20% more compared to 27{degrees}C), 32{degrees}C was estimated the best temperature for rearing Microsporidia MB infected larvae due to the shorter development time and high infection rate. This study gives insight into the favourable conditions for Microsporidia MB mass rearing and potential release strategies in malarious regions. ImportanceMalaria parasites transmitted by Anopheles mosquitoes cause a life-threatening disease, imposing a massive toll on human health and economic sustainability in sub-Saharan Africa. Relying only on insecticide- and drug-based control products whose efficacy has been eroded by resistance to control malaria is not sufficient anymore. New innovative approaches are urgently needed and Microsporidia MB, a naturally occurring symbiont across Africa is capable of inhibiting Plasmodium transmission in Anopheles gambiae s.l.. Its success in adverting a rebound of malaria cases will depend on the infection dynamic of the symbiont over time and space. Through experimental studies on field derived mosquitoes and mathematical modelling, we demonstrate that Microsporidia MB dissemination potential increase with temperature within a viable range for Anopheles mosquitoes, due to trade-offs between mosquito development and survival and the symbiont growth. Future studies should now investigate how fluctuating temperatures modulate the Plasmodium transmission blocking performance in nature.

microbiology↗

bioRxiv2021

Omitting age-dependent mosquito mortality in malaria models underestimates the effectiveness of insecticide-treated nets

Mathematical models of vector-borne infections, including malaria, often assume age-independent mortality rates of vectors, despite evidence that many insects senesce. In this study we present survival data on insecticide-resistant Anopheles gambiae s.l. from experiments in Cote dIvoire. We fit a constant mortality function and two age-dependent functions (logistic and Gompertz) to the data from mosquitoes exposed (treated) and not exposed (control) to insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), to establish biologically realistic survival functions. This enables us to explore the effects of insecticide exposure on mosquito mortality rates, and the extent to which insecticide resistance might impact the effectiveness of ITNs. We investigate this by calculating the expected number of infectious bites a mosquito will take in its lifetime, and by extension the vectorial capacity. Our results show that the predicted vectorial capacity is substantially lower in mosquitoes exposed to ITNs, despite the mosquitoes in the experiment being highly insecticide-resistant. The more realistic age-dependent functions provide a better fit to the experimental data compared to a constant mortality function and, hence, influence the predicted impact of ITNs on malaria transmission potential. In models with age-independent mortality, there is a great reduction for the vectorial capacity under exposure compared to no exposure. However, the two age-dependent functions predicted an even larger reduction due to exposure, highlighting the impact of incorporating age in the mortality rates. These results further show that multiple exposures to ITNs had a considerable effect on the vectorial capacity. Overall, the study highlights the importance of including age dependency in mathematical models of vector-borne disease transmission and in fully understanding the impact of interventions. Author summaryInterventions against malaria are most commonly targeted on the adult mosquitoes, which transmit the infection from person to person. One of the most important interventions are bed-nets, treated with insecticides. Unfortunately, extensive exposure of mosquitoes to insecticide has led to widespread evolution of insecticide resistance, which might threaten control strategies. Piecing together the overall impact of resistance on the efficacy of insecticide-treated nets is complex, but can be informed by the use of mathematical models. However, there are some assumptions that the models frequently use which are not realistic in terms of the mosquito biology. In this paper, we formulate a model that includes age-dependent mortality rates, an important parameter in vector control since control strategies most commonly aim to reduce the lifespan of the mosquitoes. By using novel data collected using field-derived insecticide-resistant mosquitoes, we explore the effects that the presence of insecticides on nets have on the mortality rates, as well as the difference incorporating age dependency in the model has on the results. We find that including age-dependent mortality greatly alters the anticipated effects of insecticide-treated nets on mosquito transmission potential, and that ignoring this realism potentially overestimates the negative impact of insecticide resistance.

ecology↗