Barbera, C. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2022

Global change drivers and the risk of infectious disease

Anthropogenic change is contributing to the rise in emerging infectious diseases, but it remains unclear which global change drivers most increase disease and under what contexts. We amassed a dataset from the literature that includes 1,832 observations of infectious disease responses to global change drivers across 1,202 host-parasite combinations. We found that biodiversity loss, climate change, and introduced species were associated with increases in disease-related endpoints or harm (i.e., enemy release for introduced species), whereas urbanization was associated with decreases in disease endpoints. Natural biodiversity gradients, deforestation, forest fragmentation, and most classes of chemical contaminants had non-significant effects on these endpoints. Overall, these results were consistent across human and non-human diseases. Context-dependent effects of the global change drivers on disease were common and are discussed. These findings will help better target disease management and surveillance efforts towards global change drivers that increase disease. One-Sentence SummaryHere we quantify which global change drivers increase infectious diseases the most to better target global disease management and surveillance efforts.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Modeling cellular co-infection and reassortment of bluetongue virus in Culicoides midges

When related segmented RNA viruses co-infect a single cell, viral reassortment can occur, potentially leading to new strains with pandemic potential. One virus capable of reassortment is bluetongue virus, which causes substantial health impacts in ruminants and is transmitted via Culicoides midges. Because midges can become co-infected by feeding on multiple different host species and remain infected for their entire life-span, there is high potential for reassortment to occur. Once a midge is co-infected, additional barriers must be crossed for a reassortant virus to emerge, such as cellular co-infection and dissemination of reassortant viruses to the salivary glands. We developed three mathematical models of within-midge bluetongue virus dynamics of increasing complexity, allowing us to explore the conditions leading to the emergence of reassortment viruses. In confronting the simplest model with published data, we estimate the average lifespan of a bluetongue virion in the midge midgut is about six hours, a key determinant of establishing a successful infection. Examination of the full model, which permits cellular co-infection and reassortment, shows that small differences in fitness of the two infecting strains may have a large impact on the frequency with which reassortant virions are observed. This is consistent with experimental co-infection studies with BTV strains with different relative fitnesses that did not produce reassortant progeny. Our models also highlight several gaps in existing data which would allow us to elucidate these dynamics in more detail, in particular the times it takes the virus to disseminate to different tissues, and measurements of viral load and reassortant frequency at different temperatures.

microbiology↗