Bani, R. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2020

Dynamic larval dispersal can mediate the response of marine metapopulations to multiple climate change impacts

Climate change is having multiple impacts on marine species characterized by sedentary adult and pelagic larval phases, from increasing adult mortality to changes in larval duration and ocean currents. Recent studies have shown impacts of climate change on species persistence through direct effects on individual survival and development, but few have considered the indirect effects mediated by ocean currents and species traits such as pelagic larval duration. We used a density-dependent and stochastic metapopulation model to predict how changes in adult mortality and dynamic connectivity can affect marine metapopulation stability. We analyzed our model with connectivity data simulated from a biophysical ocean model of the northeast Pacific coast forced under current (1998-2007) and future (2068-2077) climate scenarios in combination with scenarios of increasing adult mortality and decreasing larval duration. Our results predict that changes of ocean currents and larval duration mediated by climate change interact in complex and opposing directions to shape local mortality and metapopulation connectivity with synergistic effects on regional metapopulation stability: while species with short larval duration are most sensitive to temperature-driven reduction in larval duration, the response of species with longer larval duration are mostly mediated by changes in both the mean and variance of larval connectivity driven by ocean currents. Our results emphasize the importance of considering the spatiotemporal structure of connectivity in order to predict how the multiple effects of climate change will impact marine populations.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2020

Networks of marine protected areas under fluctuating connectivity: the importance of within-MPA dynamics

The design of marine protected areas (MPAs) has been optimized under assumptions of spatially and temporally homogeneous larval dispersal, despite complex spatiotemporal patterns displayed by ocean currents. Here we studied the effect of dispersal variability on the effectiveness of MPA networks across scales. We adopted a nested approach integrating the dynamics of both within and among MPA connectivity into a stochastic metapopulation model and first derived metapopulation persistence (required reproductive effort) and stability over MPA networks by partitioning within and among MPA contributions in relation to the spatial resolution of within-MPA connectivity. We applied this framework over a range of dispersal traits (spawning time and pelagic larval duration) and MPA network configurations, based on simulated biophysical connectivity along the northeast Pacific coast. Our results show how within-MPA dynamics affect predictions based on parameters of MPA networks such as MPA size, spacing, and pelagic larval duration. Increasing within-MPA spatial resolution predicted increasing population persistence and stability independently of other network properties. High-resolution within-MPA dynamics also predicted a negative relationship between species persistence and MPA spacing while that relationship was non-monotonic under low-resolution within-MPA dynamics. Our analysis also resolved the role of pelagic larval duration for scaling up within-MPA dynamics to MPA networks: species with short larval duration led to increasing network stability with MPA spacing while the opposite was observed for species with long larval duration. Our study stresses the importance of integrating fluctuating larval connectivity, both within and among MPAs, and more specifically suggest the benefit of small and nearby MPAs under increasing ocean variability.

ecology↗