Biology subjects

Balmford, A.

Publications and source records attributed to Balmford, A..

7 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2026

Persistent declines in forest-dependent birds following active restoration of logged tropical forest in Borneo

O_LITropical forest restoration is critical for mitigating biodiversity loss and climate change, including in forests impacted by selective logging. Active restoration through liana cutting and enrichment tree planting can substantially accelerate carbon recovery, potentially reducing economic pressures to convert logged forests. But its long-term biodiversity impacts remain largely unknown. C_LIO_LIUsing over two decades of bird survey data from Borneos largest logged-forest restoration project, we quantified occupancy patterns for 176 species across primary, naturally regenerating, and actively restored logged forests spanning a 30+ year post-logging chronosequence. C_LIO_LIForest-dependent, threatened and near-threatened species generally declined through time in actively restored areas, whereas many species in naturally regenerating forests progressively recovered toward primary forest levels. Between 17-40% of 66 threatened or near-threatened species had consistently lower occupancies in actively restored than in naturally regenerating forest. Across species of global conservation concern, median occupancies in restored areas remained [~]22% below primary forest even 50 years after harvests, compared with only [~]6% lower under natural regeneration. C_LIO_LIArboreal insectivores, frugivores, and predatory species appeared most negatively affected by active restoration, with 27-49% of arboreal gleaning insectivores (of 62), 13-30% of arboreal frugivores (of 40), and one-third of predatory species (of 15) showing higher occupancy in naturally regenerating forests. Sallying insectivores also showed a possible but uncertain response, whereas ground-associated frugivores and insectivores were largely unaffected by restoration treatment. C_LIO_LIConcerningly, even 50 years post-logging, up to 52% of 50 high forest-dependency species retained distinct occupancies in actively restored compared with primary forest, suggesting persistent negative impacts of vine-cutting and/or tree planting activities on avian populations. C_LIO_LISynthesis and applications. Our findings indicate that despite substantial carbon benefits, active restoration within selectively logged forests may impede the recovery of forest-dependent biodiversity. This challenges the common assumption embedded within nature-based climate solutions that carbon and biodiversity outcomes will necessarily align. Nonetheless, despite the persistent declines in bird communities, actively restored forests continued to provide key habitat for many species. Active interventions may thus still contribute to broader biodiversity conservation objectives if they protect logged areas from conversion, potentially via carbon payments. C_LI

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Predicting the responses of the world's bird species to increases in agricultural production

The intensification and expansion of croplands are among the greatest threats to biodiversity, but the likely responses to these changes remain unknown for most species. Using data on responses of 862 bird species to changes in yields of arable crops, we extrapolate vulnerability to agriculture for the worlds other terrestrial birds based on their traits and taxonomy. We estimate that 74-78% of terrestrial bird species globally suffer population declines where natural habitats are replaced by croplands, and that over half cannot persist in cropland at even the lowest current yields. Past impacts of agriculture on birds have been greatest in the tropics, particularly in coastal forest regions of Central and South America and West Africa and in southern and South-East Asia. Using these estimates to model the impacts of future scenarios of agricultural change, we find that continuing current rates of cropland expansion and yield increases (i.e., extrapolating business-as-usual trends to 2050) is expected to have more negative impacts on birds (particularly in Central and South America, Eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa and South and East Asia) than a potential alternative of a targeted strategy of closing yield gaps while limiting cropland expansion. However, we also identify biodiverse regions of the world where closing yield gaps may have more severe impacts on birds than business-as-usual, such as the Pampas of South America and parts of the Sahel region in West Africa. The strategy of least impact for a particular area can be predicted from the response characteristics of the communities of species present there, offering opportunities to take account of regional context for designing less damaging global food production systems.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

The costs of global protected-area expansion (Target 3 of the post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework) may fall more heavily on lower-income countries

One of the biggest stumbling blocks for global environmental agreements is how higher-income and lower-income countries share the costs of implementing them. This problem has become particularly acute as biodiversity and climate ambitions have increased across recent COPs (Conferences of Parties). Here, we estimate the likely distribution of costs for one of the most ambitious proposals: draft Target 3 of the Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF), which would increase coverage of protected and conserved areas (PCAs) to 30% of global land and sea area - more than triple the current value. Since the GBF does not specify where new PCAs would be placed, we use three scenarios of how Target 3 might be implemented, cost those scenarios, and then compare the mean distribution of costs across World Bank income groups. We find that in relative terms, lower-income countries could face considerably larger financial burdens than high-income countries, even though the benefits of conservation are disproportionately enjoyed by high-income countries. Lower-income countries would also face larger increases in the amount of land or sea under conservation, implying higher opportunity and establishment costs. Resolving this potential cost-sharing inequity may be a key requirement to achieve consensus on draft Target 3, and indeed on ambitious environmental proposals more generally.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2021

Trade-driven trapping dampens the biodiversity benefits of forest restoration in Southeast Asia

Tropical forest restoration stands to deliver important conservation gains, particularly in lowland Southeast Asia, which has suffered some of the worlds highest rates of forest loss and degradation. This promise, however, depends on the extent to which biodiversity at forest restoration sites continues to be exposed to threats. A key knowledge gap concerns the extent to which biodiversity recovery in naturally regenerating tropical forests is impacted by trapping for the multi-million-dollar wildlife trade. Here, we use a repeated survey dataset to quantify rates of avian community recovery under forest regeneration, at a flagship restoration site in the lowland rainforests of Sumatra, Indonesia. We show that over a decade, forest regeneration was associated with significant abundance increases for 43.8% of bird species. However, the apparent negative impacts of trade-driven trapping on avian populations also intensified: the proportion of species that show increased abundance only in very remote forests increased from 5.4% to 16.2%, while the overall accessibility of the forest increased. We found that 14% of species did not recover as fast as predicted based on the observed improvement in forest conditions over the study period. Our results highlight the potential for rapid avifaunal recovery in regenerating tropical forests, but also emphasize the urgency of tackling the serious threat of wildlife trade to Southeast Asias biodiversity.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2019

mtDNA-based reconstructions of change in effective population sizes of Holarctic birds do not agree with their reconstructed range sizes based on paleoclimates

During the Quaternary, large climate oscillations had profound impacts on the distribution, demography and diversity of species globally. Birds offer a special opportunity for studying these impacts because surveys of geographical distributions, publicly-available genetic sequence data, and the existence of species with adaptations to life in structurally different habitats, permit large-scale comparative analyses. We use Bayesian Skyline Plot (BSP) analysis of mitochondrial DNA to reconstruct profiles depicting how effective population size (Ne) may have changed over time, focussing on variation in the effect of the last deglaciation among 102 Holarctic species. Only 3 species showed a decline in Ne since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and 7 showed no sizeable change, whilst 92 profiles revealed an increase in Ne. Using bioclimatic Species Distribution Models (SDMs), we also estimated changes in species potential range extent since the LGM. Whilst most modelled ranges also increased, we found no correlation across species between the magnitude of change in range size and change in Ne. The lack of correlation between SDM and BSP reconstructions could not be reconciled even when range shifts were considered. We suggest the lack of agreement between these measures might be linked to changes in population densities which can be independent of range changes. We caution that interpreting either SDM or BSPs independently is problematic and potentially misleading. Additionally, we found that Ne of wetland species tended to increase later than species from terrestrial habitats, possibly reflecting a delayed increase in the extent of this habitat type after the LGM.

evolutionary biology↗

bioRxiv2019

Insights from two decades of the Student Conference on Conservation Science

Conservation science is a crisis-oriented discipline focused on delivering robust answers to reducing human impacts on nature. To explore how the field might have changed during the past two decades, we analyzed 3,245 applications for oral presentations submitted to the Student Conference on Conservation Science (SCCS) in Cambridge, UK. SCCS has been running every year since 2000, aims for global representation by providing bursaries to early-career conservationists from lower-income countries, and has never had a thematic focus, beyond conservation in the broadest sense. We found that the majority of submissions to SCCS were based on primary biological data collection from local scale field studies in the tropics, contrary to established literature which highlights gaps in tropical research. Our results showed a small increase over time in submissions framed around how nature benefits people as well as a small increase in submissions integrating social science. Our findings also suggest that students and early-career conservationists could provide pathways to increased availability of data from the tropics and for addressing well-known biases in the published literature towards wealthier countries. We hope this research will motivate efforts to support student projects, ensuring data and results are published and made publicly available.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2018

Putting species back on the map: devising a robust method for quantifying the biodiversity impacts of land conversion

AimQuantifying connections between the global drivers of habitat loss and biodiversity impact is vital for decision-makers promoting responsible land-use. To that end, biodiversity impact metrics should be able to report linked trends in specific anthropogenic activities and changes in biodiversity state. However, for biodiversity, it is challenging to deliver integrated information on its multiple dimensions (i.e. species richness, endemicity) and keep it practical. Here, we developed a biodiversity footprint indicator that can i) capture the status of different species groups, ii) link biodiversity impact to specific human activities, and iii) be adapted to the most applicable scale for the decision context.\n\nLocationCerrado Biome, Brazil\n\nMethodsWe illustrate this globally-applicable approach for the case of soybean expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado. Using species-specific habitat suitability models, we assessed the impact of soy expansion and other land uses over 2,000 species of amphibians, birds, mammals and plants for three time periods between 2000 and 2014.\n\nResultsOverall, plants suffered the greatest reduction of suitable habitat. However, among endemic and near-endemic species - which face greatest risk of global extinction from habitat conversion in the Cerrado - birds were the most affected group. While planted pastures and cropland expansion were together responsible for most of the absolute biodiversity footprint, soy expansion via direct conversion of natural vegetation had the greatest impact per unit area. The total biodiversity footprint over the period was concentrated in the southern states of Minas Gerais, Goias and Mato Grosso, but the soy footprint was proportionally higher in those northern states (such as Bahia and Piaui) which belong to the new agricultural frontier.\n\nMain conclusionsThe ability and flexibility of our approach to examine linkages between biodiversity loss and specific human activities has substantial potential to better characterise the pathways by which habitat loss drivers operate.

ecology↗