Bairos-Novak, K. R. | bioRxiv Science

bioRxiv2026

CoralBlox: A computationally efficient coral model for decision support

Coral reef management under climate change is challenging due to data sparsity and high uncertainty, yet it is essential for informing conservation strategies. We present CoralBlox, a mechanistic discrete time coral ecology model with the explicit aim of supporting rapid scenario exploration and decision making. The model represents discretized distributions of five coral functional groups across configurable spatial scales while incorporating key ecological processes, including coral growth, reproduction, thermal adaptation, and responses to disturbances. Validation against observed data demonstrates that CoralBlox effectively captures major trends in coral cover dynamics across the Great Barrier Reef, particularly for bleaching-driven mortality and recovery patterns. While simplifying ecological complexities, the model maintains sufficient ecological realism to evaluate and compare the result of distinct management strategies. CoralBlox enables comprehensive assessment of potential management interventions with high computational efficiency and interoperability. The model's flexible architecture makes it extensible to coral ecosystems worldwide, providing valuable exploratory capability for reef management.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2025

Causal modelling reveals lower coral genetic diversity in more heterogenous reef environments

Conserving genetic diversity is crucial for maintaining species evolutionary potential and resilience to environmental change. Yet, directly measuring genetic diversity across large spatial scales remains resource-intensive and impractical for conservation planning. Identifying reliable, accessible, and cost-effective spatial predictors of genetic diversity would significantly enhance our ability to incorporate genetic diversity into conservation efforts. Caribbean coral reefs represent a compelling system for investigating such predictors, as these ecosystems face unprecedented threats from disease outbreaks and climate change. Here, we investigate the utility of several environmental proxies as surrogates for genetic diversity, which may be useful for conservation planning in resource- or data-poor regions. To achieve this goal, we used reduced-representation genomic sequencing to estimate intraspecific genetic diversity, and in doing so, identified two genetically distinct and sympatric cryptic coral species in the Agaricia tenuifolia species complex. We employed a causal inference approach to assess the relationships between genetic alpha diversity and habitat area and connectivity, habitat heterogeneity, and temperature. Statistical investigations revealed that increased habitat heterogeneity, derived from remotely sensed habitat maps, was associated with lower genetic diversity within coral populations, suggesting that habitat characteristics promoting species diversity may not maintain high genetic diversity within a single species. Habitat area and connectivity, and temperature have predominantly negative effects on genetic diversity with coral habitat area and connectivity showing markedly contrasting responses in two cryptic taxa. Thus, our findings reveal that context matters greatly, as results differ between cryptic species, across variables, and among spatial scales.

evolutionary biology↗