Biology subjects

BORZEE, A.

Publications and source records attributed to BORZEE, A..

2 recordsLinked to original sources

bioRxiv2024

A slippery slope: assessing the amphibian extinction crisis through the lens of climate refugia

In a time of increasing climate uncertainty, it is ever important to identify and preserve refuges for species, optimizing the effort to cover the largest possible number of clades. Climatic refugia are areas of climatic stability that will remain suitable for species over time under multiple climate change scenarios. Amphibians are important indicators of biodiversity and ecosystem health, in addition to being the most threatened class of vertebrates and can therefore serve as proxies to designate protected areas. In this study, we use ecological modeling to delineate current distributions of all amphibian species with adequate data globally. We then projected these distributions to four climate change scenarios, and four time periods, under two climate models representing low and high climate sensitivity. Climate refugia by species were calculated as the average of all climate change scenarios and time periods and were calculated separately for the two climate models of low and high sensitivity. We additionally extracted areas of current distributions and refugia to geographic regions, Udvardy biomes, and global protected areas. With the high climate sensitivity model (CNRM-CM6-1), 2,959 species would experience a refugia area that is reduced from their current distribution, with 139 species having no refugia area. Under the low climate sensitivity model (MIROC6), 2,864 species would have a reduction in area, with 136 having no refugia. While both climate models yielded similar results in terms of percent change, the MIROC6 model overall had less of a negative impact on species refugia. The results of this study present a somber warning of the amphibian extinction crisis in contrast to some of the recent literature, as well as encouragement for managers to act in order to preserve species and the ecosystems they represent.

ecology↗

bioRxiv2022

Prediction of range expansion and estimation of dispersal routes of water deer (Hydropotes inermis) in the transboundary region between China, the Russian Far East and the Korean Peninsula

Global changes may direct species expansion away from their current range. When such an expansion occurs, and a species colonizes a new region, it is important to monitor the habitat used by the species and use the information for updated management strategies. Water deer is listed as Vulnerable species in IUCN Red List and restricted to east central China and the Korean Peninsula. Since 2017 water deer has expanded its range towards northeast China and the Russian Far East. Our research focuses on data collected in northeast China and the Russian Far East during 2017-2021, with the purpose of providing support for a better understanding of habitat use and provide conservation suggestions. We used MaxEnt to model species niche and distribution and predict habitat suitability for water deer and applied the circuitscape to determine possible dispersal routes for the species. There is good quality habitat for water deer in the boundary area of the Yalu and Tumen River estuaries between China, North Korea, and the Russian Far East, as well as the east and west regions of the Korean Peninsula. Elevation, distance to cropland and water sources, and presence of wetlands were the variables that positively contributed to modelling the suitable habitats. Two possible dispersal routes were determined using the circuit theory, one was across the area from North Korea to the downstream Tumen transboundary region, and the other was across North Korea to the boundary region in China and along the tiger national park in northern China. A series of protected areas in North Korea, China, and Russia may support the dispersal of water deer. The establishment of a Northeast Asia landscape conservation network would help establish monitoring and conservation planning at a broad scale, and this study provides an example for the need for such a network

ecology↗