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Arpat Ozgul

Publications and source records attributed to Arpat Ozgul.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Quantitative Genetics Meets Integral Projection Models: Unification of Widely Used Methods from Ecology and Evolution

O_LIMicro-evolutionary predictions are complicated by ecological feedbacks like density dependence, while ecological predictions can be complicated by evolutionary change. A widely used approach in micro-evolution, quantitative genetics, struggles to incorporate ecological processes into predictive models, while structured population modelling, a tool widely used in ecology, rarely incorporates evolution explicitly.\nC_LIO_LIIn this paper we develop a flexible, general framework that links quantitative genetics and structured population models. We use the quantitative genetic approach to write down the phenotype as an additive map. We then construct integral projection models for each component of the phenotype. The dynamics of the distribution of the phenotype are generated by combining distributions of each of its components. Population projection models can be formulated on per generation or on shorter time steps.\nC_LIO_LIWe introduce the framework before developing example models with parameters chosen to exhibit specific dynamics. These models reveal (i) how evolution of a phenotype can cause populations to move from one dynamical regime to another (e.g. from stationarity to cycles), (ii) how additive genetic variances and covariances (the G matrix) are expected to evolve over multiple generations, (iii) how changing heritability with age can maintain additive genetic variation in the face of selection and (iii) life history, population dynamics, phenotypic characters and parameters in ecological models will change as adaptation occurs.\nC_LIO_LIOur approach unifies population ecology and evolutionary biology providing a framework allowing a very wide range of questions to be addressed. The next step is to apply the approach to a variety of laboratory and field systems. Once this is done we will have a much deeper understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics and feedbacks.\nC_LI

Evolutionary Biology

The Ecological Forecast Horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants

1Forecasts of ecological dynamics in changing environments are increasingly important, and are available for a plethora of variables, such as species abundance and distribution, community structure, and ecosystem processes. There is, however, a general absence of knowledge about how far into the future, or other dimensions (space, temperature, phylogenetic distance), useful ecological forecasts can be made, and about how features of ecological systems relate to these distances. The ecological forecast horizon is the dimensional distance for which useful forecasts can be made. Five case studies illustrate the influence of various sources of uncertainty (e.g. parameter uncertainty, environmental , and demographic stochasticity, evolution), level of ecological organisation (e.g. population or community), organismal properties (e.g. body size or number of trophic links) on temporal, spatial, and phylogenetic forecast horizons. Insights from these case studies demonstrate that the ecological forecast horizon is a flexible and powerful tool for researching and communicating ecological predictability. It also has potential for motivating and guiding agenda setting for ecological forecasting research and development.

Ecology